Despite a rapid rise in production, sustainable aviation fuels fall short of expectations, urging collective action in the aviation ecosystem.
The aviation industry is facing a critical crossroads in its decarbonization journey. A new report by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), titled “Sustainable Aviation Fuels Need a Faster Takeoff”, finds that despite promising growth in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production, the sector is on course to miss its 2030 emissions targets—unless it takes urgent, collective action.
Over the past three years, SAF production has soared by 1,150% globally. Yet in absolute terms, it still represents a mere 0.3% of global jet fuel consumption, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The shortfall is stark: projections indicate that bio-SAF will fall 30% short of 2030 goals, while e-SAF, a more complex but promising alternative, will miss by an alarming 45%.
This is a sobering message for GCC countries and the wider Middle East, where aviation is a vital pillar of economic growth, connectivity, and innovation. Regional stakeholders—airlines, airports, OEMs, and governments—must heed this call if they aim to secure their leadership in a sustainable aviation future.
A Hesitant Industry, Despite Confidence
BCG’s survey of more than 500 executives from 200 aviation organizations revealed a startling paradox: while 80% of industry players express confidence in meeting their sustainability objectives, only 14% feel adequately prepared to overcome the barriers ahead.
“A wait-and-see approach dominates the industry,” the report states, with two-thirds of stakeholders positioning themselves as observers rather than leaders by 2030. Airlines and airports, often constrained by tighter margins, are investing only 1–3% of revenues into SAF initiatives—far below what is needed to scale up infrastructure and supply.
Aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing are among the few bucking the trend. Airbus has spearheaded several global investments, including an e-SAF hub partnership in Oman, while Boeing is investing in e-fuel development projects in Europe and the US.
Barriers to Progress
At the heart of the SAF investment lag is a lack of a compelling business case. Production remains expensive, with SAF costing significantly more than conventional jet fuel. This keeps demand low, limits economies of scale, and perpetuates a vicious cycle of high prices and low adoption.
The report also identifies legislative delays and financing difficulties as additional hurdles. Many SAF projects remain stuck in early stages, with fewer than 30% reaching final investment decisions. Without binding offtake agreements or supportive regulatory frameworks, developers struggle to secure funding.
Roadmap to Collaboration
For SAF to truly take off, the industry must shift from fragmented efforts to coordinated action. BCG outlines four pillars to catalyze progress:
- Aggregate Demand: Pooling long-term demand through industry alliances and travel partnerships—such as United Airlines’ Eco-Skies Alliance—can de-risk investments and incentivize production.
- Standardize SAF Markets: Clear criteria for feedstocks, emissions savings, and contract mechanisms can help establish a transparent and liquid market.
- Scale Projects through Consortia: Especially for emerging e-SAF, stakeholders must form risk-sharing consortiums to build large-scale facilities and bring costs down.
- Invest in Innovation Beyond 2030: High-impact R&D in carbon capture and next-gen fuels is essential to sustain progress beyond this decade.
The report positions aircraft and engine OEMs as potential orchestrators of this transformation, citing their industry influence and financial muscle.
A Call to Action for the GCC
For the Gulf region, where sustainability is climbing the aviation agenda—spurred by Vision 2030 programs and international partnerships—the findings serve as a confirmation for the massive investments planned and already in action in the region. call..
BCG’s authors urge all stakeholders to align their strategies now. “This is not a challenge any single market participant can solve,” they write. “By working together, the industry can capitalize on SAF’s potential to create cleaner skies and a healthier planet.”
The clock is ticking—and for aviation’s climate credibility, this may well be the last boarding call.
Source: Boston Consulting Group (2025). Sustainable Aviation Fuels Need a Faster Takeoff – Authors: Diana Dimitrova, Jérôme Rein, Nicolas Salomon, and Pelayo Losada.
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